Indeed, the world’s biggest commodity has recorded steady and stellar growth and is 80.48% in the green in the last 5 years, 16.67% in the last 52 weeks, and 13.72% since the start of 2024. The rise has led to gold price today standing at a nearly unprecedented $2,345.09.
The performance of the commodity has been, according to several prominent analysts, driven largely by high geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy and recessionary fears, and a veritable global central bank buying spree.
Additionally, multiple experts believe that gold’s rise is far from over and that the precious metal may find itself as high as $3,000 per ounce before the year is out.
Inspired by the buzz surrounding the commodity and by the release of the newest version of OpenAI’s flagship artificial intelligence (AI) platform – ChatGPT-4o – FInbold decided to request the large language model (LLM) make its own assessment of gold for the rest of 2024.
Having scoured the web for up-to-date information on gold, ChatGPT-4o concluded that the commodity is likely to continue rising throughout the coming 7 months but placed the price target at a relatively modest $2,450 per ounce.
When challenged that its estimate appears low given how much gold has surged in the previous 7 months, the AI acknowledged that it might look conservative but that it remains the estimate it deems the most likely:
Given this context, and considering various influencing factors such as anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank purchases, my speculative assessment for the price of gold by the end of 2024 remains at approximately $2,450 per ounce. This estimate balances recent upward trends with potential market dynamics over the next seven months.
ChatGPT, however, acquiesced to a request to construct two additional scenarios it considers plausible: one bullish and the other bearish.
In the bullish scenario, the AI assumed that the U.S. entered a full-blown recession by the third quarter of 2024 leading the FED to rapidly drive interest rates into the ground. It paired this calamity with a likely ensuing buying spree by central banks, a further surge in geopolitical tension, and an additional weakening of the U.S. dollar.
Under such circumstances, gold might find itself as high as $3,200 per ounce by December, according to ChatGPT.
In the bearish scenario, gold is not all that glitters as the global economies ramp up the pace of their recoveries – and bring ever-higher inflation.
Under such circumstances, the AI believes, central banks would continue hiking interest rates as the dangers of a recession would subside, and the fears of runaway inflation would run high, leading to bonds and stocks being substantially more appealing.
The outcome of such a turn of events would be, according to ChatGPT, a significant drop in the price of gold to as low as $1,700 per ounce.
